Loading
 

Russia Autos Report

Aug, 2016   |   41  Pages   |    BMI Autos |   Format : PDF

BMI View: Declining real wages coupled with high inflation will drag on passenger vehicle sales as consumer purchasing power is eroded. Although we maintain a broadly negative outlook for the domestic vehicle industry to 2020 as it remains below its previous peak level, total vehicle sales will return to positive growth in 2017 and continue growing to 2020.

Key Views
-Falling real wages, due to decreasing gross wages, and working hours alongside high inflation will all weigh on consumer purchasing power and confidence leading to faster sales declines in passenger cars than in commercial vehicles.
-The renewed scrappage scheme and other industry subsidies will help the market find its floor in 2016 but will be far less effective than in previous years.
-Pricing pressures to remain high due to costly supply chain restructuring towards local suppliers and the introduction of Euro 5 standards.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Key Views ........ 7
SWOT ...... 9
Industry Forecast .. 10
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020) . . . 10
Latest Developments . 10
Structural Trends ..... 10
Passenger Vehicles .... 22
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020) . . . . . 22
Latest Developments And Segment Drivers ....... 22
Key Players ... 22
Table: Light Vehicle Sales By Brand, January-July, Units . . . 22
Commercial Vehicles .. 23
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2014-2020) 23
Latest Developments And Segment Drivers ....... 23
Industry Risk/Reward Index ... 25
Industry Risk Reward Ratings ........ 25
Western Stability A Winner For Value-Added Production ...... 25
Hungary A Potential Mover 26
Turkey On The Radar 26
Company Profile .... 27
AvtoVaz . 27
Ford Motor ..... 28
General Motors Company .... 29
Regional Overview 30
Western Europe 30
Table: Western Europe - Autos Production Investments . . . . . 30
Spanish Competitiveness Comes With Risks ....... 31
New Models Address Regional Demand ... 31
IIA Restart Will Be Slow ..... 31
Demographic Forecast .. 33
Demographic Outlook 33
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Russia 1990-2025) . 34
Table: Key Population Ratios (Russia 1990-2025) . . . . . 34
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Russia 1990-2025) 35
Table: Population By Age Group (Russia 1990-2025) . 35
Table: Population By Age Group % (Russia 1990-2025) . . . . 36
Methodology . 38
Industry Forecasts .... 38
Sector-Specific Methodology ........ 39
Sources 39
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 40
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Index Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators . . . . 41